Jon Lester’s changeup usage has been on an upward trend since he first took the mound on July 27. He threw only six total in his 2020 debut and followed it up six days later with an increase to 14. Tuesday night in Cleveland, he threw 17 (18% usage) and generated three swinging strikes, a season high. The pitch he used only 12% of the time in 2019 has become a refreshing weapon for Lester in his age-36 season.

The key to the pitch’s effectiveness Tuesday relates to how he set up the pitch with his four-seam fastball. The 6-foot-5 Franmil Reyes became a recurring victim.

In the 1st inning, Lester spotted two four-seam fastballs off the plate inside to Reyes before turning to his changeup twice in a row later in the count to strike out the Indians’ number-five hitter. Lester duplicated this approach in the 4th inning against Reyes as he backed him off the plate with a 0-0 four-seam fastball and faded a perfect changeup just below the zone away for another Reyes whiff. Although he walked Reyes in that at-bat, his first two pitches epitomized how the southpaw sets up his changeup.

But there’s perhaps no better example of how well these two pitches tunnel than Lester’s strikeout of Cesar Hernandez in the 3rd inning. Hernandez took a middle-middle fastball for strike one before Lester wasted a pitch and threw a 1-1 changeup which he fouled off. Lester then went back to the same pitch, in a nearly identical location, to strikeout Hernandez on a flailing foul-tip. When overlayed, like in Marquee Sports Network analyst Ryan Sweeney’s breakdown from Cubs Postgame Live!, the fade of Lester’s changeup shines next to his four-seam fastball.

“Those two pitches come out of the same arm slot,” Sweeney said. “But end up in different places with around a 7-mile-per-hour difference.”

Sweeney also emphasized Lester’s ability to generate weak contact when his changeup didn’t generate a whiff. The average exit velocity of the four balls hit in play versus Lester’s changeup tonight averaged just 82.1 mph. Balls hit above 95 mph are considered “hard hit” and had a slugging percentage of 1.068 entering Tuesday’s slate of games. Conversely, balls hit below 85 mph in 2020 have a batting average of just .210 and a slugging percentage of .228 on average (data via Baseball Savant). If you’re a contact-based pitcher like Lester, the ideal form of that contact is weak and on the ground, where the Cubs’ infield can vacuum up balls and fire them across the diamond to the sure-handed Rizzo.

Lester has found a groove this season mixing together his offerings. He’ll have another opportunity to generate whiffs and weak contact Sunday against the Brewers.

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