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Deep dive: Prospects that might change the landscape in the NL Central

4 years agoLance Brozdowski

With 10 straight games against NL Central opponents to open the season and 40 in total through September 27, the Cubs will vie to earn a spot in the playoffs with a schedule more concentrated than ever on their division rivals.

The shortened season and gradually decreasing roster sizes have made roster depth and construction paramount topics of conversation. As the Cubs square off against their division, the Cubs may have to battle impact prospect talent earning their first major league appearances.

Cincinnati Reds

First matchup: July 27-30
Alternate training site: Mason, OH (Prasco Park, not affiliated with the Reds)

The Reds had multiple questions surrounding the construction of their roster entering spring training in late February. The most important was how they would find at-bats for their crop of outfielders. The team signed a former Cub, Nicholas Castellanos, along with a contact-first bat from Japan, Shogo Akiyama. Those moves came with multiple productive outfielders already under contract, including impact prospect Nick Senzel, breakout sensation Aristides Aquino and role player Phillip Ervin.

Analysts have considered Senzel the Reds top prospect since the organization drafted him second overall in 2016. But a lackluster debut season and a list of injuries have created question marks about his upside. His playing time before the expansion of the DH seemed up in the air, but he now benefits from increased roster flexibility.

Senzel’s hit tool is his main feature, with some projecting near 70-grade ability with his bat, translating to a .300 average at the major league level. His set-up at the plate changed multiple times last season as he slowly moved towards a more upright stance with fluid pre-pitch movements from a simple, almost statuesque stance early in the year. Nearly all of his other tools project to above average or 55-grade — game power, speed and fielding ability. Against the Cubs in 2019, Senzel slashed .290/.338/.377 in 69 at-bats, with his lone home run coming in an August game against Kyle Hendricks.

A short 30-minute drive northeast of Great American Ballpark is where the Reds will house the rest of their player pool.

Nick Lodolo is one of the team’s top prospects who could make an impact if he graduates from Prasco Park. Although Lodolo only pitched at Class-A Dayton and rookie ball last season, he was beyond advanced for both levels. He struck out over 35% of the batters he faced and posted a FIP below 2.00. He likely won’t make an impact in the Reds rotation, but his ability to throw multiple innings could give the team a distinct value add in their already deep bullpen.

Lodolo’s current omission from the Reds 40-man roster raises some questions about the Reds’ willingness to move him quickly, but there may not be another pitcher at Praso with his upside.

Milwaukee Brewers

First matchup: July 24-26
Alternate training site: Appleton, WI (Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers park)

Unlike the Reds, who commenced satellite roster workouts at Prasco Park shortly after players reported to Great American Ballpark on July 1, the Brewers have been hosting staggered workouts with their entire player pool at Miller Park. Their satellite roster will commence play at the team’s Class-A facility after the team’s 30-man roster for Opening Day rounds into form.

For now, the only two prospects of note with a potential to impact 2020 are a pair of pitchers who figure to work out of the bullpen: Drew Rasmussen and Devin Williams.

Only two of the Brewers Top 10 prospects have reps at the Double-A level or above, with much of their talent still in the early stages of development. Both Rasmussen and Williams project to make an impact because of their reps in the majors and Triple-A despite their consensus standing as non-Top-10 prospects in the organization.

Williams debuted last year and made 13 appearances with a respectable 3.95 ERA. His fastball averaged 96 mph and topped out above 98 mph while his primary offspeed pitch is an 86-mph changeup with nearly 18 inches of arm-side run, four inches above league average at the pitch’s velocity. He struggled with walks in both 2018 and early 2019, but since a promotion to Triple-A, he kept his control in check.

Rasmussen, like Williams, possesses his own high-velocity fastball. He routinely touches 99 mph and sits right around 95-96 mph in average velocity. His slider is his best secondary pitch, with his changeup lagging slightly behind.

Rasmussen has undergone two Tommy John surgeries in his career, but his velocity has returned to a point where his injury history doesn’t completely sink his profile. Last season, he earned two promotions and cruised until a rough patch of appearances in June ballooned his ERA. His routine multi-inning work helped him round into form by the end of the year, projecting him for a quick path to the major leagues this season if the Brewers are in need of bullpen assistance.

Pittsburgh Pirates

First matchup: July 31 – August 2
Alternate training site: Altoona, PA (Double-A Altoona Curve park)

The moment Ke’Bryan Hayes arrives in the major leagues the NL Central may have a new top defensive third baseman. If it wasn’t for Nolan Arenado, he might be the best in the National League. Hayes is the son of former major leaguer Charlie Hayes and routinely grades out as one of the Top 15 defensive prospects in all of baseball.

His bat has been a work in progress, with some minor underperformance last season with Triple-A Indianapolis. His pitch selection and bat control are both considered above average by some analysts, but most of his game power is merely projection. He has hit just 25 home runs over the course of his entire minor league career (461 games).

Hayes’ inclusion on the Pirates 40-man roster confirms what many have thought: his major league debut is merely months — if not weeks — away. For now, the Pirates seem comfortable with starting Colin Moran at third base, but new manager Derek Shelton has suggested others — potentially Hayes — could man the hot corner this season as well.

Apart from Hayes, right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller is another Pirates prospect with a clear and immediate impact on the Pirates’ major league roster in 2020. Keller debuted last season with perplexing results. He allowed 6 earned runs in the first inning of his first start. His following 10 starts to close out the year alternated between exceptional and as rocky as his first.

But the big picture of his 2019 can be displayed in two metrics: his ERA and FIP. Keller posted a 7.13 ERA in his 48 innings, the 11th highest in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings (398 pitchers total). His FIP, however, was well above average at 3.19. (FIP is a metric known as fielder independent pitching that reflects what a pitcher’s ERA would have experienced league-average results on balls in play. Like most statistics, it’s not a definitive assessment of a pitcher’s season, but it informs us that Keller experienced some of the poorest batted-ball luck in all of baseball last year.)

Keller pitched 2 games against the Cubs last season. In his first outing, the Cubs tagged him for 6 earned runs in 4.1 innings on the back of a Nicholas Castellanos home run and Kris Bryant RBI double. Just over a month later, he bounced back and spun a strong 5 innings in a Cubs loss. The only run off Keller in that September game came on a Nico Hoerner RBI double.

St. Louis Cardinals

First matchup: August 7-9
Alternate training site: Springfield, MO (Double-A Springfield Cardinals park)

Entering the 2019 season, Dylan Carlson was an afterthought on most top prospect lists. Drafted in 2016, he repeated Class-A after a mediocre performance and entered 2019 with little in the way of stats to back up the hype he had around him. But the switch-hitting outfielder took the minor leagues by storm last year, hitting 21 home runs in 108 games with a .518 slugging percentage and OBP above .350.

Entering 2020, sites like MLB Pipeline had Carlson as a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball, raving over his game power from both sides of the plate.

The buzz heading into Spring Training back in late February was that Carlson could break camp with the Cardinals and man left field full time. But recent reports suggest the team would prefer to give outfielders with a little bit more experience — like Tyler O’Neil and Lane Thomas — a chance to hold the job before Carlson. If Carlson has success against the Cubs like he did their Triple-A affiliate, he’ll hear a lot of boos at Wrigley Field. Carlson created havoc against the Iowa Cubs in the seven games he started against them. He hit 2 home runs and 5 extra-base hits, driving in 3 runs and stealing 2 bases.

An arm to watch on the Cardinals is right-handed pitcher Kodi Whitley. Like Carlson, Whitley is not on the team’s 40-man roster, but each are leading candidates to be added should a spot open up.

Whitley earned two promotions in 2019, with no signs of being overmatched at any level of the minors. His stint at Triple-A was particularly impressive, as he posted a 28% strikeout rate in 23.2 innings with a 1.52 ERA. He lives on a plus fastball and above-average slider, with a developing changeup.

His use exclusively as a reliever in 2019 suggests his role will be out of the bullpen, but his repertoire depth and ability to go multiple innings bodes well for his usage with the three-batter minimum.

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