Where Cubs sit in NL playoff race after huge series with Brewers
CHICAGO — Thursday’s contest could have been a game-changer for the Cubs in their bid for the NL Central crown.
After dropping the first game of the series with the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, the Cubs came roaring back with three straight wins — including a doubleheader sweep Tuesday.
That positioned the Cubs for a massive game against the Brewers on Thursday in the series finale — and the last matchup this season between the two teams.
If the Cubs pulled out a victory Thursday, they would have been only five games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Instead, they dropped a 4-1 contest to fall seven games back of Milwaukee in the division.
The Cubs still hold the top Wild Card spot in the NL, ahead of the San Diego Padres and New York Mets:
Thursday’s game followed a familiar script — strong starting pitching (Shota Imanaga went seven innings, allowing only two runs) but an offense that left 11 on base and went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position.
The Cubs had their chances, drawing eight walks and collecting five hits on the afternoon.
MLB teams that drew eight walks in a game this season are 90-28, good for a .763 winning percentage. Of the 118 games in which a team has drawn eight walks, only four times has that lineup scored only one or fewer runs — including the Cubs on Thursday.
The end result was a missed opportunity to make some real noise in the division down the stretch.
Yes, the Cubs won the series with the Brewers. But they only gained a game in the standings after a hard-fought week.
“I’d describe the series as we kind of held serve,” manager Craig Counsell said. “We probably needed a little bit more. But, we win three out of five. … Today stings a little bit. Getting today’s game obviously would’ve been a big one. They played a better game than us.”
With the Cubs’ three-game winning streak over the Brewers Tuesday and Wednesday, they secured the season series against the NL Central leaders. That gives the Cubs the tiebreaker, which could mean the difference between winning the division and getting into the postseason as a Wild-Card team.
Both teams have 34 games remaining in the regular season. That means if the Brewers went only 17-17, the Cubs would have to go 24-10 to tie Milwaukee and thus win the division.
Certainly not impossible, but it would be a difficult task. The Brewers have been winning more than 70% of their games for several months, so it’s tough to expect them to fall off the map and only play .500 baseball the rest of the way.
And on the Cubs’ end, it would also be difficult to go 24-10 with a schedule that includes an upcoming three-city West Coast trip as well as seven games remaining against the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets — two teams currently vying for a playoff spot.
After Thursday’s win, the Brewers now hold a 91.9% chance of winning the NL Central, according to FanGraphs.
The Cubs still have a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs (again, per FanGraphs) but the most likely path is to get into the tournament is via a Wild Card spot. Making up seven games with only 34 left is a difficult task.
That’s not to say the week at Wrigley Field was full of doom and gloom. The Cubs played good baseball to beat a red-hot team.
The Brewers came into the series with an 18-2 record over a 20-game stretch, yet the Cubs handed them three losses in a row over a 32-hour span.
The Cubs offense found its rhythm in the middle of the week and they boast the best rotation in baseball over the last two months.
But even with a return to the lineup after three games off, Kyle Tucker was unable to find better results, going 0-for-4 with a walk Thursday.
The Cubs will hit the road for a three-city, nine-game trip beginning Friday against the Los Angeles Angels.

