The 31 Cubs players who will board a charter flight from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport to Haneda Airport in Tokyo found officially found out their fate Tuesday.

The Cubs finalized their 31-man roster early Tuesday morning — the biggest news being the inclusion of top prospect Matt Shaw.

“Matt Shaw’s going to Japan,” manager Craig Counsell told reporters in Mesa, Ariz. on Tuesday. “That’s probably the news — the big news.”

Of course, that’s not the only important news — there are 30 other players that will make the trip. As a note, the Cubs don’t have to officially submit their 26-man roster for the two-game set against the Dodgers until closer to Opening Day.

So, let’s take a deeper look at the 31-man roster, plus who missed out on the trip:

Last Cuts

OF Kevin Alcántara
RHP Keegan Thompson
RHP Javier Assad
2B Nico Hoerner

Let’s get Assad and Hoerner out of the way — both were dealing with injuries, and it had been announced earlier in camp that they wouldn’t be traveling to Tokyo. The duo was still in Cubs camp as of Tuesday morning, so, for purposes of this exercise, we included them in the last cuts section, because, technically, they were.

Thompson’s name is arguably the most surprising.

The righty has shown flashes of being a very solid reliever in the big leagues. Last season, he had a 2.67 ERA in 24 outings. But, he’s struggled with command the last few years. Last year, he had a 14.2% walk rate in 30.1 innings, the 10th most among pitchers with 30 or more innings pitched. The year prior, his walk rate was 15.2%.

He entered this year with no minor-league options and battling for one of the final spots in a crowded bullpen field. This spring he had just 1 walk in 4.2 innings, but he allowed 3 home runs in that time and had a 5.79 ERA.

“I thought Keegan threw well here, but ultimately, we felt like some guys were better,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters on Tuesday. “When you have guys who are out of options, you’re going to have to make some hard decisions. I think the goal always is to keep as much depth and talent as possible, but there’s limits to that. Sometimes you reach those limits.”

Alcántara had an impressive spring, going 7-for-25 with 4 RBI and a stolen base, but ended up being the last position player cut. The outfield is a crowded area for the Cubs — Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki will occupy the three spots, plus the DH role. That means Alcántara would have been a bench option at best. The Cubs clearly saw more benefit to having him stay back in the states, play regularly in minor league games and be ready as an option if an injury occurs this season.

Last few in

LHP Jordan Wicks
RHP Ben Brown
RHP Brad Keller
RHP Daniel Palencia
3B Matt Shaw

[MORE: Cubs top prospect Matt Shaw named to team’s Tokyo Series roster]

Seemingly every year, at least one non-roster invitee forces the Cubs’ hand and Keller was the player this year. He’s impressed in camp, touching the upper 90s with his fastball and posting a 3.00 ERA in 9 innings with a 1.11 WHIP. This is a pitcher who was a solid major leaguer early in his career (3.08 ERA in 140.1 innings his rookie year in 2018 and 2.47 ERA in 54.2 innings in 2020).

“I’d like to take a longer view with Brad Keller, because I think there’s some ingredients there that can make him a very good pitcher, a very good starting pitcher,” Counsell said earlier in camp. “This is a pitcher that had big success in the league at a very young age and I always take note of that. I think that’s important to take note of. It’s in there. There’s a really good major league starting pitcher in there. That’s the guy that we want.”

Like the other three arms on this list, though, Keller’s inclusion on the 31-man roster doesn’t guarantee an Opening Day roster spot. The Cubs will take a 5-man travel squad to Tokyo — both as depth in case injuries happen while the team is in Japan and as cover for the two exhibition games they’ll play.

Brown and Wicks could provide length in those exhibition games if something crazy happens. And if an injury occurs, they’ll be ready for the two games against the Dodgers, too.

Because of the timing of the series, starting pitchers aren’t fully stretched out, so it’s possible Counsell must dig into his bullpen early into games. And because its only early March, relievers aren’t going to be pitching on back-to-back days, so an early exit on Opening Day could mean the need to have a length option in game two.  

Palencia has had a solid spring results-wise — a 4.15 ERA, 0.92 WHIP with 3 strikeouts in 4.1 innings. But it’s the stuff that’s caught the eye. In his first Cactus League outing of the spring, Palencia struck out the Dodgers’ Ryan Ward on a 101.3-mph fastball. He hit 99.7-mph or higher on 8 of his 16 pitches in that outing.

After a difficult 2024 on and off the field, Palencia is rewarded with a spot on the trip to Japan.

Pitchers (17)

RHP Ryan Braiser
RHP Ben Brown
RHP Porter Hodge
RHP Brad Keller*
RHP Julian Merryweather
RHP Tyson Miller
RHP Eli Morgan
RHP Daniel Palencia
RHP Nate Pearson
RHP Ryan Pressly
RHP Colin Rea
RHP Jameson Taillon
LHP Matthew Boyd
LHP Shota Imanaga
LHP Justin Steele
LHP Caleb Thielbar
LHP Jordan Wicks
* – denotes not on the 40-man roster

Counsell told reporters Tuesday that the first exhibition game, against the Hanshin Tigers, will be a bullpen game. The second game, against the Yomiuri Giants, Taillon will get the ball. Earlier this spring, Counsell teased the possibility of piggybacking starters and it’s possible that Boyd could follow Taillon against the Giants to get his work in.

That would mean Taillon and Boyd wouldn’t be on the list of 26 active players for the two-game set against the Dodgers and the Cubs would have to add two more pitchers to that 5-man travel squad to whittle it down to the maximum of 13 on the roster.

Position players (14)

C Miguel Amaya
C Carson Kelly
C Reese McGuire*
INF Jon Berti
INF Vidal Brujan
INF Michael Busch
INF Matt Shaw*
INF Dansby Swanson
INF Justin Turner
INF Gage Workman
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
OF Ian Happ
OF Seiya Suzuki
OF Kyle Tucker
* – denotes not on the 40-man roster

McGuire’s inclusion allows the Cubs to carry an extra catcher, should the need arise in an emergency in the week or so they’re in Japan. The catcher position is the most taxing and you want to have a backup in case an injury arises. If Amaya and Kelly are good to go, though, McGuire will simply remain on the 5-man travel squad and not a part of the list of 26 active players.

The Cubs will still have to make a 40-man roster move for Shaw, who would seem to be the presumptive favorite to be the Opening Day starter at third base.