Entering Sunday’s fourth game against the Brewers, Lester had a lot of luck working in his favor. The Cubs’ superb defense this season has backed up his innate ability to generate weak contact.

Although his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) signaled some regression was imminent, Lester has always been one to outperform league BABIP. As his velocity has decreased in his career, his command and sequencing have given him prolonged success. But every now and then, even a pitcher like Lester runs into good hitters putting fantastic swings on well-executed pitches.

In Keston Hiura’s first at-bat of the game, the slumping sophomore fell behind 0-2 after a pair of cutters and then chased a curveball in the dirt for strike three. Two innings later, Hiura and Lester faced off again. The southpaw worked ahead with a similar cutter-cutter combination, but when he threw a 1-2 curveball again, Hiura fouled it off. Then Lester missed with a cutter off the plate before making an adjustment and returning to the same pitch a few inches closer to the zone.

“[Hiura] knew that Lester would make an adjustment,” Marquee Sports Network analyst Sean Marshall said. “And [Hiura] made an adjustment as well. You tip your cap to good hitting and that was a good swing on a quality pitch.” 

Hiura took Lester’s second cutter out to center field, a well-executed pitch that was a few inches off the plate, a spot that Lester rarely gets beat on facing right-handed hitting. 

In the 5th inning, Lester faced Orlando Arcia, a hitter who has continually found holes against the Cubs this season. Arcia jumped on a first-pitch cutter multiple inches inside off the plate and pulled it deep into the left field bleachers.

“[Arcia] was cheating to get to that spot,” Marshall said. “It’s difficult to keep that ball fall unless you’re cheating on the inside part of the plate.”

Lester only allowed one home run that was off the plate in 2019. On Sunday, he allowed two home runs off the plate in a matter of three innings. Regression struck Lester harder than expected as the Cubs dropped their third in a row. But his ability to get through six innings and keep the Cubs in the game sets the team up well for a stretch of five games in three days with the St. Louis Cardinals.

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