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Why Shota Imanaga thinks one stat highlights his ability to continue to grow with Cubs

1 month agoAndy Martinez

MESA, Ariz. — By any measure you want to use, Shota Imanaga’s 2024 campaign was successful.

But how did it compare to what he had expected out of him going into the year?

“I can’t say I exceeded my own expectations,” Imanaga said through interpreter Edwin Stanberry.

[WATCH: Exclusive one-on-one interview with Cubs starter Shota Imanaga]

Really? He was both a Rookie of the Year and Cy Young candidate and was the Cubs’ most valuable pitcher. So, how could it not have surpassed his anticipations?

Well, if you look at one stat, you’ll see why.

“Looking back, I would look at the stats, and I would look at WAR and comparing, let’s say, [Dodgers rookie Yoshinobu] Yamamoto — he threw less innings than me,” Imanaga said. “I believe I had a 3 [WAR by Fangraphs’ metrics] and he had a 2.8 [fWAR]. He threw less innings, but his WAR was pretty close to me. And looking at a guy like [Pirates rookie] Paul Skenes, his WAR was incredible.”

[Cubs Spring Training Notebook: What Shota Imanaga wants to showcase to teammates in Japan]

It was a bit shocking to hear Imanaga openly talk about an advanced metric like WAR. In Japan, baseball fans flock to more traditional pitching stats, like pitcher wins and losses and ERA. His 15 wins were an impressive feat in that regard.

“I think he’s a student of the game, right? That’s one thing we’ve always known about him,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “He’s very intelligent. He’s always trying to find ways to get better and not even in the traditional sense, right?”

“The Throwing Philospher” — as he was dubbed in Japan — was using Fangraphs WAR as opposed to Baseball-Reference’s version. Fangraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as a basis to calculate their number. FIP hurts Imanaga because it neutralizes pitchers’ performances by assuming league-average defense and emphasizes the three true outcomes — strikeouts, walks and home runs.

In Imanaga’s case, as a fly ball tendency pitcher, he allowed 27 long balls and had the 7th-highest HR/9 of qualified pitchers (1.40).

To combat that, Imanaga knows he’ll have to try and chase more misses from hitters and fewer round-trippers.

“So, for me, looking back, I just need to figure out, ‘OK, I need to have give up less home runs. I need to get my strikeout numbers higher,’” Imanaga said. “That means, quality of the starts are going to be better. So, I think looking at all those, I figured out, ‘OK, this is what I need to work on for next season.’”

And the Cubs are hopeful that leads to a whole new level for Imanaga — and a higher fWAR in turn.

“What’s really encouraging was Shota coming in — after everything we went through in spring training to kind of onboard him — he came in like, ‘I’m gonna get my strengths dialed in. I’m gonna do what I know makes me successful, and then we’re gonna build off that,’” Hottovy said. “And that’s so refreshing to have a guy who’s had success and also wants to continue to get better but knows what his foundation is and what’s gonna make him successful.”

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