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MLB prospect rankings: Top Cubs minor leaguers, from No. 30 to No. 21

1 week agoLance Brozdowski

Programming note: Marquee Sports Network player development analyst Lance Brozdowski is revealing his Top 30 Chicago Cubs prospects list ahead of Thursday night’s season premiere of “Road to Wrigley Live,” which provides whip-around, commercial-free coverage of every Cubs minor league affiliate.

Today’s list evaluates prospects No. 30 to No. 21, and includes both veteran minor leaguers and fresh faces.

All good things must come to an end.

The Chicago Cubs’ farm system was atop the baseball world the last two seasons, littered with top-end talent. With the calendar turned to 2025 and more prospect graduations expected, their depth will come into focus this year and next.

That depth, at the moment, is in the form of tool-sy international talents, many of whom are three-plus years away from impact. That puts pressure on the Cubs’ pitching department to reload with top-end talent to mitigate risk at the major league level. Will their approach in the draft this season reflect their organizational weaknesses? It remains to be seen.

In constructing this list, I heavily relied on non-public data, which includes things such as exit velocities, chase and contact rates for hitters, and pitch shapes, velocities, zone and whiff rates for pitchers. I also relied on a mix of sourcing from inside and outside the Cubs’ organization.

The main thing I’ll point out is the difference between the No. 30 and the No. 21 prospect on this list is very small. Essentially every player is in the same tier of future projection, which is more role player or fringe major-leaguer rather than an MLB regular.

30. Fernando Cruz, SS

Acquired: 2024 international class (Dominican Republic)
Current club: Rookie-level DSL Cubs Red

I’ll admit I’m not as sharp an analyst on international prospects, without reams of data to attach to something objective. That makes some of the analysis on this international-heavy Cubs list difficult.

I do believe the public attaches too much to the dollar values associated with international signings such as Cruz, who signed for $4 million last year. Teams are buying at a point in time. Once a player goes into an organization and develops, that money becomes mostly irrelevant to the player’s potential.

Cruz is a good defender. There are some concerns around his swing-miss connected to his bat path that, like many other young international prospects, will need to be cleaned up. His twitch is enough to land him No. 30 on this list (he’s not as twitchy as Alexey Lumpuy, who is No. 25).

29. Pedro Ramirez, 2B/3B

Acquired: 2021 international class (Venezuela)
Current club: Double-A Knoxville

Ramirez is similar to fellow Cubs prospect James Triantos from a batted-ball standpoint. There’s a lot of contact here, with questions around Ramirez’s defensive position, but his actions and athleticism are appealing enough to feel comfortable with some projection. There are average exit velocities here, too, but it hasn’t translated to glimpses of in-game power like it has for Triantos, nor does Ramirez project to tackle an outfield spot with serviceable defense to raise his floor.

If Ramirez has another power leap or better results at High-A/Double-A this season, I’ll be happy to buy back in.

28. Connor Noland, RHP

Acquired: 2022 ninth-round draft pick (University of Arkansas)
Current club: Triple-A Iowa

If you squint, you’ll see Noland is a right-handed version of Justin Steele. He’s a prospect who’s never had velocity — he sat at 90 mph last season and a tick higher in his first Triple-A start this year. He does have extreme cut on his fastball, meaning it moves less inside to right-handed hitters than the average fastball does.

Noland’s MO is limiting hard contact, playing with how his ball enters the zone horizontally and stays off the barrel. He will not miss a ton of bats (215 strikeouts in 258 minor league innings), but his breaking-ball quality and velocity are enough for me to see some kind of MLB-depth arm.

27. Brody McCullough, RHP

Acquired: 2022 10th-round draft pick (Wingate University)
Current club: Double-A Knoxville

In case it wasn’t obvious, the Cubs’ pitching depth in the minors is incredibly shallow. It’s a byproduct of graduating Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks but also not allocating resources to pitching in last year’s MLB draft.

McCullough represents one of the organization’s more interesting arms from a “stuff” standpoint outside of Cade Horton. He has an extreme cut fastball that sat 93 mph last season, sports two breaking balls with surprising zone rates, and has big extension down the mound.

In a land of control-command types throughout the org, McCullough is fun. He’s just been crushed by injuries and again is behind this season, as he’s on the 60-day IL with a forearm issue. As the pitching guy, I’ll always do my best to force fun pitchers onto top prospect lists like this.

26. Yahil Melendez, 3B/SS

Acquired: 2023 seventh-round draft pick (Be You Academy, Puerto Rico)
Current club: TBD

Melendez popped onto the scene last year with some exciting tools before slightly mellowing as the season progressed. He’s tooled up, which leaves promise for improvement, especially at just 19 years old.

As with many younger, less-polished prospects, swing clean-ups will be needed and will have a strong bearing on Melendez’s offensive projection. His swing can be flat at times, forcing him into high rates of infield fly balls, some of the least productive contact of any batted ball (Christopher Morel had — and still has — a similar issue).

It’s something to watch this season as Melendez likely heads to Myrtle Beach for his first taste of full-season affiliate pitching.

25. Alexey Lumpuy, OF

Acquired: 2023 international class (Cuba) 
Current club: Single-A Myrtle Beach

Talk to anybody on the Cubs’ international side, and Lumpuy’s name comes up every time. His explosiveness and power for his size is exceptional. This often is referred to as the “quick twitch” muscle — essential for things such as bat speed.

While Lumpuy’s track record is shallow and he has minimal experience against better pitching, opening up a lot of variance, the bet is that he will apply his raw physical traits to his on-field tools in a way that warrants this rank.

24. Cole Mathis, 3B

Acquired: 2024 second-round pick (College of Charleston)
Current club: Single-A Myrtle Beach

Mathis had gaudy exit velocities in a sub-par conference, the Coastal Athletic Association, while in college. He had multiple exit-velocity metrics that ranked better than 75 percent of the Division-I crop of bats, though, and he also mashed 11 home runs in 38 Cape Cod League games two summers ago.

Mathis’ track record is strong, and after he had Tommy John surgery, the hope is he can stick at third base and play average defense. His swing is a bit quirky, featuring a very steep load that some internally believes will require work to clean up, but the Cubs haven’t feared unorthodox swings over performance (Matt Shaw is a great example)

23. Cristian Hernandez, SS

Acquired: 2021 international Class (Dominican Republic)
Current club: High-A South Bend

Hernandez underwhelmed in his first few years stateside, as he struggled against pro-quality breaking balls early in his career, warranting an adjustment that made him more vulnerable to velocity last season. It’s been a balancing act to find the sweet spot where he isn’t clearly vulnerable to either set of pitches.

This is Hernandez’s Rule 5 year, so the Cubs must protect him on their 40-man roster or expose him to potential selection by another organization by year’s end. So, it’s a big season for Hernandez to put up considerable gains or fall back in terms of future potential, and he’s off to a scorching-hot start at High-A South Bend, with six extra-base hits and seven stolen bases in his first nine games. It’s a promising sign that this rank could look low by the end of the season.

22. Will Sanders, RHP

Acquired: 2023 fourth-round draft pick (University of South Carolina)
Current club: Double-A Knoxville

Sanders is a big-framed, high-release right-hander who sat at 93 mph last season. His fastballs played down considerably last season because of his steeper angles into the zone lining up with most modern, lofted bat paths.

This offseason, Sanders reworked his sinker into a “splinker,” a fancy pitch that allows him to pick up more drop on the pitch at higher levels of velocity. He also morphed his changeup into a splitter, which he previously threw in college. The adjustments are promising and should allow Sanders to limit the barrels that were black marks on his profile.

21. Ryan Gallagher, RHP

Acquired: 2024 sixth-round draft pick (UC Santa Barbara)
Current club: High-A South Bend 

Gallagher is an off-the-radar name I see leaping onto most public lists by year’s end. He sat 89 mph at UCSB and at 92.7 mph in his first outing with High-A South Bend, touching 94.5 mph — a considerable leap. The carrying tool in Gallagher’s profile is exceptional command, which he has held at this higher window of velocity. He mixes a changeup, slider and curveball, all of which need the velocity jump to pop.

Although it might be early to rank Gallagher in the Top 30, I’m trying to get ahead of the curve with the big right-hander, who should fly through the lower levels of the minors.

Coming Wednesday: No. 20 to No. 11 Cubs prospects

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