Baseball Prospectus’ PECTOA standings are out and with them come two bits of good news:

1. Baseball is very, very near.
2. The Cubs are pegged by the projection system to be one of the best teams in Major League Baseball in 2025.

PECOTA projections come out each year right before Spring Training kicks into high gear and the system relays a possible path at how the season might play out.

This year, PECOTA is projecting the Cubs to win 90 games – coming in at 90.6 wins, to be more precise. Only the Dodgers (103.8 wins) and Braves (92.4) are projected for higher win totals in 2025.

That’s also a 10-game difference than the next closest team in the NL Central – the Brewers at 80.2 wins. The Cardinals (78.6), Pirates (75.1) and Reds (73.5) are all a far cry away from the Cubs in the projection system.

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PECTOA is giving the Cubs a 79.4% chance at winning the division and 86.9% chance of making the playoffs.

The Cubs also have a 7.1% chance of winning the World Series – which is the 3rd-highest percentage in the NL, again behind the Dodgers (20.7%) and Braves (9.7%). The Yankees (9%) and Orioles (8.2%) have higher odds of winning it all from the American League side (possibly since they don’t have to contend with the Dodgers in the NL).

This is obviously just one projection system, but it certainly speaks to the Cubs’ strong offseason that includes the additions of Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly and Matthew Boyd.

The Cubs have finished at 83-79 each of the last 2 seasons and have not made the playoffs since 2020. So 90 wins and a division title would be a dream season for Cubs fans.