If the Chicago Cubs are going to have success in 2025 and reach the playoffs, their veterans need to perform, for sure.

Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele (just to name some) have to continue to perform like they have throughout their career. But they also need some breaks to fall their way, mainly in the form of unexpected performances from unlikely players.

“I’ve said it to you guys so many times, I think ultimately, it’s really about having guys outperform your expectations, right?” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters in Tokyo this week. “If we want to be as good as we think we can be, you’re gonna have to have some exceptional seasons.”

So, just who could be some of those players that can exceed expectations? Well, on the latest episode of the Cubs Weekly Podcast, hosts Tony Andracki, Andy Martínez, Elise Menaker and Lance Brozdowski offered some candidates.

“I think this is the year where [Pete Crow-Armstrong] flashes the leather, is consistent at the plate,” Menaker said on the podcast.

Crow-Armstrong would be the most likely to outperform projections. The projection service ZiPS by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, projects Crow-Armstrong for a 3.3 fWAR season, a .713 OPS 15 home runs, 31 stolen bases and a 100 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), exactly league average.

His struggles early last season hurt his overall numbers at the end of the year, but if he can carry over his success from his final 57 games (.806 OPS, 7 HR and a 123 wRC+), then that’s the type of performance that can help him exceed that 3.3 fWAR projection.

Along those lines, Michael Busch is another young player coming off a strong rookie campaign that could take another step in 2025.

“I feel like in some ways he had a breakout last year, but I would consider last year being breakthrough, this year breakout,” Andracki said. “2.8 bWAR last year, 2.3 fWAR. Good defender, the Cubs believe he could win a Gold Glove and a guy who hit 20 homers, 65 RBI, 75 runs, but he did that when he had a .683 OPS at home, at Wrigley with eight homers, 25 RBI because the wind suppressed offense so much.

“So, if he’s able to take another step overall, kind of improve on his defense, his first full year playing first and then hit better at home, I could just see him kind of taking off and being a 4-WAR-plus player. I would not be surprised at all for that.”  

[MORE: Cubs’ Justin Steele keeping perspective amidst milestones, struggles]

Cubs manager Craig Counsell and the rest of the organization have said that playing time behind the plate will likely be split in 2025, but if one of Miguel Amaya or Carson Kelly exceeds in the role, they could become the full-time catcher. Amaya is a former top prospect who, like Crow-Armstrong, made swing adjustments last season that led to success. Those have carried over into spring, where he’s hitting .524 and had an RBI double on Opening Day.

“I think he’ll eventually push himself to be the starter behind the plate,” Martínez said.

“It’s gotta be Ben Brown for me,” Brozdowski said. “I’ve been on him for a while. I think you look back at the end of the year and in terms of who had the most impact in the fifth starter role, even those he’s more thought of as a reliever, multi-inning guy right now.”

The righty certainly flashed that potential last season. In 55.1 big-league innings last season, Brown had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In his third-to-last outing of the year before going down with a season-ending neck injury, Brown no-hit the Brewers through seven innings, striking out 10 and walking just two in the outing.

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