Projecting the Cubs’ win total during the 2025 season
As the record shows on Monday, the Cubs are currently 0-2 in 2025 after being swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB Tokyo Series. While it’s only two games that have been played, the Cubs look to bounce back in the win column once the U.S. season begins on Thursday.
According to the Pecota Standings as of Saturday, the Cubs are projected to win 90 games and take the NL Central.
But following back-to-back seasons with a 83-79 record, the question being asked is how many games will the Cubs win in 2025?
Tony Andracki, Andy Martínez, Elise Menaker and Lance Brozdowski each provided their estimates for how many games the Cubs would win in 2025 on the recent episode of the Cubs Weekly Podcast.
“90 has been the target since last year, the players have been talking and people have been mentioning and I’m like, got to go with 89,” Menaker said.
“I think I’m going to end right in that window and say 87 to 88,” Brozdowski said. “Their over/under is like 86.5 from what I’ve seen. I’ll say 87 and it takes the division one game over the Milwaukee Brewers.”
[Bold Chicago Cubs predictions include 2025 NL MVP, Gold Glove winners]
While the Cubs are projected to win the division, Pecota has the Brewers finishing in 2nd place with 79 projected wins in 2025.
The Cubs have made significant moves this offseason by trading for outfielder Kyle Tucker, signing pitcher Matthew Boyd and catcher Carson Kelly, adding veteran arms to the bullpen such as Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar, Eli Morgan and Ryan Brasier.
By these moves, Martínez believes it’s an improvement in the win column for 2025.
“I’m saying 88. I think they’ve improved to at least 5 wins and that will be good enough to win the division,” Martínez said.
The last two seasons, the Cubs have finished second in the division with 83 wins, falling short to the Brewers in both 2023 and 2024. With all the moves in place that Jed Hoyer and co. have added, Andracki said this is the time to put things together.
“I’m going to go with 90 wins overall. I think they eventually get over that hump and put things together for a season,” Andracki said.
The Cubs U.S. season opener begins on Thursday, March 27th in a 4-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The home opener at Wrigley Field begins Friday, April 4th against the San Diego Padres.
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