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Tatsuya Imai scouting report: Potential Cubs free agent target analyzed

4 months agoTony Andracki

The most intriguing pitcher on the MLB free agent market might not be Dylan Cease or Michael King, two pitchers already been linked to the Cubs.

Instead, that title might go to Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai.

[MORE: Michael King could provide Cubs attractive option in free agency]

Imai was posted by his Japanese team earlier this week and is expected to sign with an MLB team by Jan. 2, when his negotiation window closes.

As the Cubs search for impact starting pitching, Imai already is a name we’ve seen connected to them.

Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski provided an in-depth Imai scouting report Friday on “Cubs 360,” including a unicorn-esque skillset.

“Really interesting starter … From the data side from my perspective, I want to dig into the three things in particular,” Brozdowski said. “The fastball velocity is really good. He’s 95.5 mph, he touches about 98, 99 mph. You see the major league-average 4-seam is right around 94.5 mph.

“The big thing — you talk about why is he so effective? [His release height is] much lower than the major league average by about 10 inches. That creates a visual perception for a hitter of his fastball being very flat to the zone. So it’s hard to get under it and get on top of it. … He’s a little bit undersized, gets down the mound really well, but it’s really low slot. The average arm angle in baseball is right around 40 degrees. He’s around 20 degrees. That’s a big difference.”

Imai also throws a slider that goes completely against expectations.

Sliders from right-handed pitchers typically bite away from right-handed hitters, toward the left-handed batter’s box. Imai’s moves in the opposite way, diving in on righties.

“The last thing here is really weird,” Brozdowski explained. “… [The slider] is a very odd shape, one you don’t see a lot in Major League Baseball. That makes him maybe a little difficult to project going forward in Major League Baseball. Because there’s not a lot of precedent of this arm-side slider shape.

“But he throws hard. He’s also got, like, three variations of off-speed that are all really effective. He’s a fascinating arm. You’re going to have to pay him probably close to $150 million or so with this posting fee attached to him.”

Imai, who will turn 28 in May, posted stellar numbers in 2025. He was 10-5 with the Seibu Lions with a 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 178 strikeouts in 163.2 innings. He has four consecutive seasons with an ERA under 2.50 and has whiffed batters at a rate of 9.64 K/9 over that span in Japan.

The potential is tantalizing. But there’s also a high degree of risk associated with Imai.

Is it too much risk for the Cubs?

“I think he’s going to be a hot commodity,” Brozdowski said on “Cubs 360.” “Partially because there’s a lot of variance around this profile. When you’re projecting these guys to come over, it’s often tough to totally lock in and be like, we know his projection will be this. When you’re looking at Dylan Cease, he’s been in the majors for a while. He’s basically a metronome from an innings pitched standpoint. I kind of know what I’m getting from him.

“Imai, you have a wider range of outcomes. So it becomes a tolerance of what team wants to pay maybe over what another team’s going to pay. If the Cubs are willing to go to $130 million on him, is there another team that will go to $140, $150? That risk calculation on him is just harder to peg. I think from a front-office standpoint, that’s attractive to some teams. Other teams that prefer safety, maybe not so much.”

Catch Brozdowski’s full Imai breakdown on the Marquee Sports Network app.