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The Cubs’ starting rotation plan for the offseason is coming into focus

4 weeks agoAndy Martinez

SAN ANTONIO, Texas — Starting pitching was a strength for the Cubs in 2024.

They want to turn it into a stronghold in 2025.

The Cubs plan to add pitching — especially in their rotation — this offseason as they look to break past the 83-win threshold they’ve lagged at the last two seasons. The Cubs rotation was a rock for the team last year as they finished 6th in baseball in ERA (3.77).

The nucleus of that rotation returns next year with Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad all expected to be in the fold. But Kyle Hendricks’ departure to the Angels, coupled with the uncertainty and injuries to young pitchers like Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Cade Horton leave a clear opening.

There’s a plethora of intriguing arms on the market, but the top starter available, Corbin Burnes, likely won’t be a target for the Cubs. They haven’t jumped into the deep end of that starting pitching market — especially a Scott Boras client — in the past and it doesn’t look like this will be the time to do that.

But that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t spend big on the right starter.

Max Fried, who won a World Series in Atlanta and finished second in Cy Young voting in 2022, is in the next tier of free agents that might make sense. The 30-year-old lefty has pitched at least 165 innings in 4 of the last 5 full seasons. Last year, Fried posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 174.1 innings in 29 starts.

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– The ripple effects of Cody Bellinger’s return to Cubs in 2025
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Signing Fried isn’t as simple as reaching terms, though.

He was extended the qualifying offer from Atlanta, so theoretically he could return to the Braves on a 1-year deal. But if he declines it, then the Cubs would have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period.

“You’re just kind of always weighing it into the equation, right?” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said on Wednesday afternoon at the GM Meetings at the JW Marriott resort. “That’s just part of the cost, I guess. We can quantify what the picks are worth, and you have to kind of weigh, ‘Is the contract and that worth it?’

“There’s also plenty of good players that don’t have those attached.”

Pitchers like Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi and Walker Buehler are among a litany of free agents without qualifying offers attached.

That’s not to say the Cubs are only focused on players without qualifying offers, though. They want to add the right pitchers to a staff that has had success already, either through free agency or trade.

[WATCH: 1-on-1 with Hoyer on Day 3 of the GM Meetings]

Because for all that success last season, it doesn’t guarantee those pitchers will replicate it in 2025.

There was plenty of talk regarding the weather at Wrigley Field and the effects it had on hitters and run scoring. By Statcast’s Park Factor, Wrigley ranked 29th out of 30 parks. It was the second-least friendly hitter’s park in baseball behind Seattle’s T-Mobile Park.

But that applies to their pitchers, too, as they had plenty of success thanks to it. The Cubs rotation had a 3.77 ERA as a whole in 2024 and that number dropped to 3.07 at home, the second-best mark behind Seattle (2.74).

If the weather turns Wrigley Field into a more hitter ballpark, that affects the Cubs pitchers. So, adding more surefire arms is a necessity for the Cubs.

“Coming into last year, I think we had as much pitching depth as we’ve had and even with that, a lot of guys went down and we were scrambling,” Hoyer said. “Like everyone here, I think we’re looking for as many good quality arms as possible and hopefully we can keep as many healthy as possible.”

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