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Cubs News

Why Christopher Morel is the perfect microcosm of the Cubs lineup in May

6 months agoTony Andracki

MILWAUKEE – Christopher Morel thought he got it.

He connected on an offering from Milwaukee’s Bryse Wilson, sending a deep fly ball to center field.

With Cody Bellinger dancing off second base, it looked to be a 2-out, 2-run homer to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead in the Top of the 3rd inning at American Family Field.

But Brewers center fielder Blake Perkins timed his jump perfectly and snagged Morel’s ball just before it went over the fence.

Morel had hit the ball 101.5 mph and it carried an expected batting average of .670. It would have been a homer in 6 of the 30 MLB ballparks.

Instead, it was an 0-for-1 in the scorebook.

In Morel’s first trip to the plate Wednesday night, he hit a 107.8 mph rocket out toward shortstop. It was a ground ball but because it was hit so hard, it carried an expected batting average of .510.

It also went down as an 0-for-1 in the scorebook.

So that’s 2 barrels, 2 hard-hit balls and 0 hits.

The sequences perfectly encapsulate Morel’s season. He is hitting the ball hard, drawing more walks and striking out less and yet he has the worst offensive numbers of his career right now.

Entering play Wednesday, no hitter in baseball has been more unlucky than Morel.

He has the largest difference between his actual batting average (.192) and his expected average (.264).

Morel also had the 3rd-largest gap between his actual slugging percentage (.363) and his expected slugging percentage (.499).

His struggles are a microcosm of the Cubs’ team-wide offensive issues in May.

[MORE: How Cubs leadership is processing offensive struggles]

A lineup with the track record of guys like Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ should be scoring more runs. They shouldn’t be second-to-last in baseball in batting average in May and near the bottom in many other offensive categories.

Just like Morel should be seeing better results. Baseball doesn’t always work out that way.

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While not every member of the Cubs lineup is experiencing bad luck, they feel as a group that this team should be putting up more runs. And at the center of that, there is a general feeling that Morel’s luck is about to turn.

“That’s one where that should even out here pretty soon,” Jed Hoyer said. “He’s hit too many balls hard. He’s definitely not played the wind well this year. It feels like he will inevitable break out given how good his expected numbers are.”

Morel’s teammates have helped pick him up and support him through a frustrating month. But even with the poor results, Morel still leads the Cubs in homers, RBI and also walks.

That’s the area the Cubs are most encouraged by: Morel’s rising walk rate and sinking strikeout rate.

The Cubs’ young slugger struck out 31% of the time last year and that number has fallen to 21.9% this season. His walk rate has also climbed from 8.4% to an elite 12.3% (which ranks among the Top 25 in all of baseball).

“He’s got some feel for, ‘I am swinging the bat well and not getting the results I want,’ Counsell said. “And he knows where he’s at. It’s not gonna help you to swing at worse pitches.

“His improvement – that’s important. That’s growth to understand that and not chase it. If you hit enough, you know that chasing hits is a hard way to play the game. That’s why the word ‘process’ is a popular word in baseball right now.

“It’s because it is the way you can survive the ups and downs that are results-based things which has a ton of luck in it. That’s how you survive it mentally, as much as anything.”

It wasn’t just Morel on Wednesday night for the Cubs.

Happ crushed a 105.3 mph line drive 388 feet to center field but Perkins made a diving catch on the warning track to rob Happ of a hit – on a ball that had a .650 expected batting average.

Perkins also robbed Dansby Swanson in the 5th inning, taking a 101-mph fly ball with a .610 expected batting average and turning it into an inning-ending flyout instead of an extra-base hit that plated 3 runs with the bases loaded.

The Cubs were able to still finish with 10 hits and 6 runs Wednesday night. They lost the game, but it was an encouraging effort for the second night in a row from a lineup that had been scuffling.

Even if there was the potential for a lot more in the game, the Cubs can still find important takeaways from the performance.

“It’s trying to take positives out of the swings,” Happ said. “I think Morel has been in that all year. He’s hitting balls hard right at people. Dansby’s definitely had a lot of that and you just try to take the positive swings.

“We hit a lot of balls really hard. They played great defense … It was tough. Come back tomorrow and hopefully those balls fall.”

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