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Bair Mail: On Matt Eberflus, Shane Waldron, Cole Kmet and Caleb Williams

4 weeks agoScott Bair
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The Bears were in such great standing after winning three straight games. They were in the same place after taking a late lead against Washington with roughly 25 seconds left in the Week 8 contest.

We all know what happened next.

The Hail Mary was complete and the Bears lost a win. Then they responded in terrible fashion and ended up losing to Arizona by getting outplayed over four quarters, not just one play.

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The Bears lost one game on one bad moment. They lost a second game on all of them.

Fluke loss one week, total domination the next.

Both of them should be considered failures. That has sent the fan base into a tizzy. It has also demanded changes within the coaching staff, which the vast majority of the questions we received wanted to address.

We’ll discuss that, in addition to some other pressing topics in this Wednesday edition of Bair Mail. Let’s get to it.

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Should Matt Eberflus be concerned for his job? (Michael DeMaria18 on Instagram)

Not during the season. I can’t imagine the Bears making a move on their head coach during the regular season, unless things take a terrible turn down the stretch. It would take a complete collapse for a move like that, especially without a terrific option as the interim coach.

We’ve also seen Matt Eberflus rally his teams later in seasons, as he did after a terrible start in 2023.

After the season, though, that’s another matter. And I don’t think it’s a playoff-or-bust scenario. Not in the NFC North as currently constructed. It’s about how Eberflus navigates the latter portions of the season and how much buy-in he retains. He seemed to have so much of it during training camp, and that has eroded with losses, as evidenced by vocal calls for better from established veteran player leadership.

This is a nuanced evaluation that needs more time. I know it’s open season on Eberflus, and there’s plenty of evidence that he has made mistakes in games and in press-conference messaging, which may seem insignificant but is important in retaining his position as a valued leader. I don’t think it’s over, not if he rallies as he has before. We’ll see how he does in a key three-game winning streak.

I think the Bears would like to maintain stability around quarterback Caleb Williams, but not at the expense of his development. That could toss a year of his schematic learning, but that’s not the end of the world of the Bears find the right guy.

Now let’s go back to the question. Should Eberflus be worried about his job? Yes. He definitely must turn things around quickly to maintain his status as Bears head coach.

This isn’t a question but more of a comment. The Bears must take play-calling duties from Shane Waldron. (Ted Zanto on Twitter)

I can’t imagine that happening. Eberflus was asked about pulling play-calling duties from coordinator Shane Waldron after a Week 9 loss to Arizona. Of note: That wasn’t sourced reporting that Eberflus was considering it. That was a question from a reporter.

Eberflus’ answer was clear. It was a flat no.

That makes sense for a few reasons. First of all, Eberflus was heavily/chiefly involved in hiring Waldron, with other good options who didn’t get the job. Ditching his pick after eight games seems crazy. That would be as bad of a look for him as it would be for Waldron.

The Bears have another qualified candidate in passing game coordinator Thomas Brown, who has been University of Miami (2016-18) and was Panthers offensive coordinator in 2023.

I still think it would take a real downturn to make a switch. When the Bears player leadership challenged Waldron to do better after Week 3, he responded. Waldron has still done some things to get too cute, but he has some good ideas and has run some good offenses.

Much like the previous question, abandoning ship at this point shouldn’t be a thing at this point. The Bears are looking inward, but it’s about how to be more impactful and efficient. While Waldron hasn’t been perfect or even great, it’s just not time for a changing of any guard.

Why is Caleb Williams not throwing to Cole Kmet?…..he is very reliable and can be trusted to get the job done. (from Becky Neiddbalski from Facebook)

Cole Kmet should be included among the NFL’s best tight ends. He just doesn’t have the stats to show for it. Fans should be frustrated by the fact that he has one target over the last two games.

That should tell you two things. 1. That target share is unacceptable. 2. That defenses know how important Kmet is to the Bears offensive success.

When Kmet is going well, he’s at about 2.2 yards per routes run. It tanks when he’s not a part of the offense. I think he’s as important to this offense’s success as anyone who isn’t a quarterback. The Bears need to understand that. He was kept back to block on 53.1 percent of his snaps versus Washington and on 30.2 percent of his snaps versus snaps. That speaks to protection plans, but there’s no doubting that Kmet and D’Andre Swift need to be found in the pattern, that small, higher-percentage gains are better than low-percentage deep shots.

There are few things that I truly side with in this mailbag. This Kmet involvement thing is one. He must be involved for this offense to be successful. He’s an outlet. He’s a YAC guy. He’s a big play guy. To leave him out over two games is simply unacceptable.

Why does Caleb always run backwards instead of forward and stepping up into the pocket? (Doug Ustich from Facebook)

Let’s speak to that for a moment. Caleb Williams does play well in the pocket and does step into it. He also had an instinct to run and make big plays down the field. There are times, however, where I’ve seen profit to be made with check downs and shorter throws that Williams didn’t take.

I said this on the Bears on the Marquee Podcast and I’ll say this here: While we want to heap blame on the coach and the coordinator, the young and developing quarterback isn’t without issue here. While we love his willingness to go through progressions, Williams could have options to get small gains over big shots. He did that well against the Rams and Panthers, but was pressured in unique ways and started to try to make big attempts than didn’t turn out. Now, look, the Bears offensive issues are focused on issues outside the quarterback. The Bears need to protect Williams better and give him better options, but he does play a role in why this offense has fallen back to where it was in Weeks 3-4.

One mailbag is close another one is open!! Another one is open. Please submit your questions below and keep this good thing going.

Bair Mail

Please submit your question below for inclusion in Bair Mail, our weekly mailbag that runs each Wednesday, and the Bears on the Marquee podcast, that drops each Tuesday. Marquee Sports Network Bears Insider Scott Bair — with perfect last name for this job — will answer your questions and comments about everything Chicago Bears. Appreciate you joining the conversation!

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