Take the ball away. Protect it with your life. That has long been preached the clearest path toward NFL victory.

Win the turnover battle, win the game.

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Modern analytics have ushered in a sentiment shift, with another (more complicated) stat portending wins more often than not.

“The way I understand it right now from our analytics team, the EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses,” Bears head coach Ben Johnson said last week at the NFL owners meetings. “That’s probably changed over the last five years or so. I would have said five years ago turnovers, takeaways, that was number one. From what I understand now, that EPA for the passing game has now surpassed that.”

EPA. Let’s define that before we go any further.

It stands for “expected points added,” and measures how much a play or player performs relative to expectation, with the goal of quantifying an individual’s impact on team point production. Not all yards and situations are created equal, and each situation as a point value associated with it, with some weighted heavier than others. Performance on a given play can be a positive or negative and factor into the overall EPA score. Also of note, this is currently the best metric to assess how an individual or phase of the team impacts the overall result.

When it comes to passing EPA, which Johnson specifically referred to, the same basic formula can be applied to the quarterback. It includes a number of passing-related factors, including completion percentage, yards per attempt, turnovers and sacks. In sum, it’s the net value added by a quarterback on pass plays.

“Whatever team has the higher passing game EPA at the end of the game, they generally win that game over 80% of the time,” Johnson said. “It’s a huge stat. That’s where we look to – how do we help inflate that number? Higher completion percentage, more run after the catch opportunities. That’s not to say we’re not going to take our shots down the field and look for big explosive plays, chunks or touchdowns that way. There’s a lot of ways we can get that done.” 

As you can see, with the numbers below, Johnson has done his homework.

Passing EPA is something the Bears struggled with in 2024, which played a part in their 5-12 record. The Bears ranked 27^th in EPA per pass play at minus-.15.

Williams’ passing EPA, per NFL NextGen Stats,  was minus-69.4 and ranked 35^th among NFL quarterbacks. That’s, well, not great. It must get a whole lot better in 2025 to help the Cubs win games.

That was during a rookie year where offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and head coach Matt Eberflus got fired, Williams had two different play callers. He was also under constant duress and took tons of sacks, while being asked to do way too much as a rookie, especially under Waldron.

Johnson and his scheme will impact Williams’ efficiency, as will the offensive upgrades made around him.

Williams go through a trying offseason with his development in mind, as Johnson and his offensive staff working to build him back up the right way and make his second season far better than his first.

“You (have to) go back to the basics,” Johnson said. “It’s the fundamentals of the quarterback position. What’s our footwork going to look like under center? From the shotgun? What are we calling the formations? What’s the defensive identification going to look like? So that we’re all speaking the same language. We’ve got to get on the same page because it’ll be a little bit different for him than what he experienced last year and if we can mesh together and start speaking the same language, that’s when things will really start to take off.” 

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