So much of this Chicago Bears season centers on Caleb Williams’ potential, performance and development over the course of his rookie season.

Sky-high expectations come with being the No. 1 overall pick, but we’ll try to ignore them and focus on the facts, stats and what we see from Williams each week. His progression through this campaign will be documented in a new weekly series called “Counting on Caleb,” that drops each Tuesday.

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The title isn’t meant to insinuate that the Bears are only counting on their rookie QB to succeed in 2024. Instead, it’s meant to home on his development, identifying positive moments and possible setbacks/areas of regression/coachable moments throughout what will be an interesting journey through his first NFL season.

Let’s get started with a breakdown of his performance in a 21-16 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and what needs to come next:

Week 3 stat line

Box score

33-of-52 passing (63.5 comp.%), 363 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 7.0 ypa, 80.8 passer rating; 1 rush, 8 yds; 4 sacks, 1 lost fumble

PFF Metrics

Kept clean (76.8%): 29-for-43, 331 yds, 7.7 ypa 1 TD, 1 INT

Under pressure (23.2%): 4-for-9 32 yds, 3.6 ypa, 1 TD, 1 INT

Not Blitzed (82.1): 27-for-43, 298 yds, 6.9 ypa, 1 TD, 2 INT

When Blitzed (17.9): 6-for-9, 65 yds, 7.2 ypa, 1 TD

PFF Passing direction map (PFF passing stats on Williams in Week 3 can be found here):

Overall evaluation

This was Williams’ best game thus far, though still not great, and part of a continuing trend of the USC product getting a little bit better every week. He threw the ball 52 times – a surprise to everyone, including the quarterback himself – but showed some positives during a quarter-plus where the Bears were trying to erase a two-score deficit.

He was 15-for-19 passing for 133 yards and two touchdowns in that span and found a good flow while the Bears were operating with some pace. He established positive results with Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze, supplementing the strong connection with DJ Moore founded the first two weeks.

Williams did throw two more interceptions, including one that was a bit late and allowed Jaylon Jones to jump the route and make an easy pick. That was surely a learning experience that can’t happen again. Williams hit a few deep shots – he has no problem trying them – but still operates at a low percentage letting it rip.

And, with 20/20 hindsight, he should’ve bailed out of a 4^th-and-1 play that went for a 12-yard loss or called a timeout when the look was bad.

Overall, though, it looked like Williams made strides as he continues to learn on a job with tremendous amounts of responsibility.

Eberflus on Williams’ Week 3 performance

“I think that you saw him operate in the two-minute drives that he operated in – I thought were really good. I think that he looked good in those moments. To score that touchdown, he got his first two touchdowns of his career today. There was passing and so there’s a lot to build on, but I said that we have to look at each other, look at yourself and see what you can do better execution wise to get to victory next week.” — Eberflus

Rookie rankings

Williams is among three rookie quarterbacks making starts for their respective teams at this time. Here are their overall stats through three weeks:

Jayden Daniels (Washington): 61-of-76 passing for 664 yards (80.3 comp%), 2 TD, 0 INT, 8.7 ypa, 111.8 passer rating; 38 rushes, 138 yards, 3 TD; 9 sacks, 3 fumbles

Bo Nix (Denver): 71-of-113 passing (62.8 comp%), 600 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT, 5.3 ypa, 61.8 passer rating; 18 rushes, 107 yds, 2 TD; 4 sacks, 0 fumbles

Caleb Williams (Bears): 70-for-118 passing (59.3 comp%), 630 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT, 5.3 ypa, 65.3 passer rating; 11 rushes for 67 yds; 13 sacks, 2 fumbles

Looking ahead

Eberflus had great advice for Williams heading into Week 3 that applies to the upcoming game against the L.A. Rams.

“Be steady.”

That’s key from one week to the next. Don’t ride the inevitable ups and downs of a rookie or try to make up for past mistakes with rash reaction.

When it comes to the little things, make sure the operation is clean and work through the litany of responsibilities on his plate pre- and post-snap and get to a point where throws can be out quickly and accurately.

Overall, there’s an opportunity to be productive against a Rams defense that’s ranked dead last in yards allowed, with struggles against the run and pass. They’re also 31^st in scoring defense, playing on the road, so there’s an opportunity to be productive against a struggling unit. If the run game gets going and Williams can build on the positives from Week 3, it could be a good game for the young signal caller.

Williams on what comes next

“I think (our offensive identity is brewing. I think it is a lot closer than it was the week before, or weeks before. And I think us figuring that out is going to get this thing going. I think we’re right there. It’s – on all the plays, we were just simply, one small detail – I mean, that’s myself included on some of these plays that happen today, but we’re one small detail (away). A lot of these plays that like I’ve said in many other interviews, that these small details always add up to be something bigger.”

Follow Bears Insider Scott Bair on X @ScottBairNFL. Also, Bair Mail is coming! Join the conversation by submitting a mailbag question or comment to mailbag@marqueesportsnetwork.com for a chance to be included in this new content series.