Shota Imanaga is a free agent.

The first surprise in the Chicago Cubs’ offseason came Tuesday morning when the team declined its three-year, $57 million contract option, which triggered a one-year, $15 million player option, a source confirmed to Marquee Sports Network. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the news.

[Cubs 2025-26 offseason primer: Free agents, roster decisions, key dates]

That means the Cubs’ left-hander hits the open market — with a caveat. The team can extend the qualifying offer (QO) to him — a one-year, $22.025 million pact. Players almost always decline this — only 14 of the 144 players who have received one have accepted it.

If Imanaga accepts the QO, then he’s back with the Cubs; if he doesn’t, then he’s on the open market, and the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

So, how did the 32-year-old, who had been their best and most reliable starter over the past two seasons, go from Opening Day starter to being deemed excess?

Well, it all starts with the end of his season.

Imanaga allowed 12 home runs over his final six starts, posting a 5.97 ERA in that span across 34.2 innings. He was naturally a fly ball pitcher, but his fastball, which raised hitters’ eye levels and splitter that played off as it died below the zone, both began to catch too much of the heart of the plate. Popflies and weak contact turned into long balls and runs.

[MORE: Cubs’ Cade Horton named finalist for NL Rookie of the Year award]

The troubles were so pronounced that he made just two postseason appearances – following an opener in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series and starting a Game 2 loss against the Brewers in the NL Division Series. He had an 8.10 ERA in those games, allowing three home runs and the Cubs lost both contests.

The Cubs don’t believe that those final six or so weeks of 2025 are who Imanaga is. But committing to three years of that for a pitcher conceivably entering the tail end of his prime and into his mid-thirties is a bit daunting. Throw in the fact that his three-year option included a no-trade clause, and the idea of committing $57 million over three years was clearly a risky proposition.

Jed Hoyer and the Cubs’ front office have also been pretty deliberate in keeping their books clear beyond 2026. Only Dansby Swanson has a guaranteed contract beyond next season as the uncertainty regarding the pending collective bargaining agreement, which expires after next season, looms.

Would Imanaga on the Cubs at $19 million in 2026 be a reasonable price? Of course. That annual average value for the next two years, though, becomes questionable. And that was the Cubs’ conundrum.

Despite being desperate for pitching, Hoyer and the Cubs’ brass were playing the long game, and that meant declining Imanaga’s option. It also means potentially saying goodbye to a pitcher who went from unknown when he was signed as a free agent ahead of Cubs Convention in 2024 to the Opening Day starter in 2025 and fan favorite.

“I think when we signed Shota, if you would have shown us his production over the last two years, you would have taken that in a heartbeat,” Hoyer said at his end-of-season press conference last month. “So not only has he produced for us, but he’s just a great teammate, a terrific asset to the organization.”