pixel
Cubs News

Three observations from Cubs’ strong August that has led to meaningful September

3 weeks agoAndy Martinez

The Cubs wrapped up their August slate with a 5-3 win over the Nationals on Saturday afternoon in Washington.

The win allowed them to finish with an 18-8 record in August, their best month of the season and has made September much more intriguing than it looked like it would be at the beginning of the month.

Here are three observations from the last month of Cubs baseball:

Does ‘Craigtember’ mean playoffs?

The playoff odds for the Cubs on FanGraphs (3.3% entering Saturday) and Baseball-Reference (7.7%) will tell you it’s not likely they’ll be playing beyond their season finale against the Reds on September 29.

Their play in August will tell you they’re going to give themselves every opportunity to be playing in October.

[WATCH: The best of the Cubs’ August]

Beyond playing 10 games over .500 this past month, the Cubs won 8 of their 9 series this month and have gone 11-3 since being swept by the Guardians in the middle of the month. That’s moved them within striking distance (at least 5 games before Atlanta’s game against the Phillies on Saturday night) of the Braves and ensures September will have meaningful baseball.

“I think we’ve given ourselves a chance to play games in September that count and that means something,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters after the game. “And it took a really good month and it’s gonna take another great month.

“But I’m proud of the guys for putting together a great stretch of baseball and giving ourselves a chance here.”

The Cubs’ September schedule is interesting — they open with a 3-game set against Pittsburgh (who they just swept) then play two of baseball’s best teams — the Yankees and Dodgers after. After the Dodgers series, they play one team with a winning record over their final 17 games (a 3-game set in Philadelphia).

Another — underrated — aspect that could play into the Cubs’ hands is the Counsell effect. Counsell’s Brewers teams always ended the season strong. The Brewers had a .500 record or better in September in every one of his final 8 seasons in Milwaukee — 7 of those seasons had a winning record.

Cubs fans won’t forget the 2018 season when the Brewers improbably chased them down to force a Game 163 and win the NL Central – they went 19-7 in September that year. The next year they were 20-7 and last season they were 17-11 in September. That 2018 and 2019 seasons led Brewers fans to dub it “Craigtember.”

Craigtember would be welcome right now for Cubs fans.

Bottoms up

For large chunks of the season, the bottom of the Cubs lineup was proving to be the offense’s Achilles heel.

In August, it turned into their strong suit.

The 8 and 9 hitters in the Cubs lineup combined to post a 1.006 OPS in August, over 200 points better than the next closest team (Colorado, .767).

A pair of mechanical changes for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya have helped in that. Crow-Armstrong fine-tuned his load, emphasizing putting more of his weight in his back leg and that’s led to more consistency and hard contact at the plate. Amaya dropped his leg kick and shifted towards a toe tap, at the behest of former big leaguer Nelson Cruz — and the results have been eye-popping.

Amaya slashed .318/.348/.576 with 4 home runs and 19 RBI and Crow-Armstrong hit .325/.391/.578 with 4 homers, 16 RBI and 6 stolen bases.

That production will be key in the final month of the season. The struggles of the bottom of the order early in the season made it easier on opposing pitchers — they knew they had a pocket where they could rack up outs and work around hitters to get to the last hitters in the lineup.

Now, pitchers have to game plan against Crow-Armstrong and Amaya and that turns the lineup into more of the circle that Counsell always preaches about.

Pitching, pitching, pitching

If there’s one area of the Cubs that could make or break their September, it’s their pitching.

Their rotation has been solid all year — but how will Shota Imanaga fare down the stretch in his first major league season? What contributions will the Cubs get out of Kyle Hendricks in the final month? Where does Jordan Wicks — who is starting Sunday’s finale in Washington in his first appearance since June 14 — fit into the equation?

All those questions will be worth following. But, if the Cubs rotation can pitch like they have most of the season, it can continue to be a strong foundation for them.

The backend of their bullpen seems pretty set — Jorge López and Porter Hodge have developed into Counsell’s most trusted and highest-leverage arms. Tyson Miller and Drew Smyly are solid setup men who can also pitch multiple innings.

But the rest of the bullpen is a bit of a mystery.

Nate Pearson has flashed some velocity and looks like a strong backend option — but he’s been a bit susceptible to the long ball — he’s allowed 3 homers in 15.1 innings. Keegan Thompson, Ethan Roberts and the newly acquired Shawn Armstrong don’t have defined roles (although Thompson did pick up the save on Friday).

[WATCH: Nate Pearson credits success to Tommy Hottovy’s simple idea]

If Pearson and one of those three pitchers can develop into Counsell’s circle of trust, that would be a boon to the Cubs. Having multiple options late in games for Counsell will allow them to avoid a fade like they had last year where their bullpen just ran out of gas down the stretch.

Don’t Miss Out On The Action!

Sign up for the Marquee Sports Network Newsletter today for all the latest Cubs news, plus upcoming Marquee programming and much more!

Newsletter Signup
Consent *
Opt-in
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.