Amid flurry of rumors, Cubs know their path likely is trade market
DALLAS — As the offseason kicks into full speed, the rumor mill has been churning out plenty of trade ideas involving the Cubs.
Player X to City A. Player Y to City B. A wild three-team trade involving 9 players. Scroll social media long enough and you’ll find a swap that looks enticing.
But don’t believe everything you read on the internet, the old saying goes.
“I haven’t read one accurate yet,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Monday night at the Hilton Anatole Resort. “I don’t look at it very much. It’s hard, right? Because I feel like so many times when, when you read the trade rumor out there, it’s because someone wants that out there, right?”
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But the Cubs know the best path to shaking up a team that has won 83 games in consecutive seasons could be dipping into that trade market.
“It’s safe to say that … is most likely to happen via trade,” Hoyer said.
That’s easier said than done, though.
Teams don’t want to make a deal just to make a deal. A modern trade looks at the totality of the picture. If a prospect is involved, what does the front office think the future value of that player is and how could it impact the next few seasons?
In the Cubs’ situation, a trade would need to be one that drastically improves the team. They don’t want to make a deal that only marginally improves them.
“You’re not going to bend over backwards and do a big deal to add a half a win and have a negative asset in the future,” Hoyer said. “All these are the things you’re thinking about. I feel like you have to clear that bar by a decent amount because you’re probably not doing that on a one year [move].”
One player whose name has been floated around quite a bit is Cody Bellinger, who is an interesting player in the trade market.
On the surface, it’s a former MVP, a Gold Glove winner and a flexible player who can play first base or in the outfield (including center).
“Good players get asked about,” manager Craig Counsell said. “That’s just how this works now. I think I worry about it a little more during the season. In the off-season, it’s just part of it. It’s part of being a good player. It’s a compliment in a lot of ways.”
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But Bellinger also carries a hefty price tag — he has two years and $52.5 million remaining on his contract, including $27.5 million in 2025. He also has an opt-out after the 2025 season that comes with a $5 million buyout.
And he hasn’t quite performed to those levels over the last 5 seasons. Since 2020, Bellinger has had three seasons performing as an above-average bat, by weighted runs created plus (100 is average) — in 2020 (112 wRC+), 2023 (136 wRC+) and 2024 (109 wRC+).
But that contract is more in line with the 2023 version of Bellinger, more so than any of the other four seasons in that time frame.
If he’s not performing like he did in 2023, teams won’t value his contract that way and would hesitate to pull the trigger on a deal for him.
The Cubs do know they are looking for ways to improve their team — and that is most likely to come in the form of a player who can produce a high level of WAR and improve on their back-to-back 83-win teams.
That type of player could come internally, for sure — players like Bellinger and Dansby Swanson have produced 5+ fWAR seasons in their careers. Isaac Paredes and Nico Hoerner have been close to that level in the past. And a player like Pete Crow-Armstrong flashed the potential in 2024 to manufacture at that level.
It might take the Cubs thinking outside of the box to find a partner where they can finally break the threshold and play in October again.
“I think you always look (for 5+ WAR players),” Hoyer said. “Sometimes those guys haven’t done it yet, but you think they can do it
“But I think in our situation, certainly, we can’t stop looking for that. I think that there’s teams that have significant star power and lack depth and they’re looking for different things. I think we are the opposite like we have a ton of depth and a ton of good players. But, yeah, I think that that’s something we are focused on.”