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Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Bears’ run defense among good, bad, ugly at bye

6 months agoScott Bair

The Bears are in the midst of a Week 5 bye, which sounds far too early. Head coach Ben Johnson swears it’s well-timed for a new staff to reassess and enact systemic or schematic course corrections at a point where they can make a positive impact on the current season.

Considering the Bears’ injury situation, the time off also should help three defensive starters — slot cornerback Kyler Gordon, linebacker T.J. Edwards and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett — come back after missed time.

So, maybe Johnson is right.

The Bears entered this relatively quiet period at 2-2. A blown fourth-quarter lead, plus by a lopsided loss in Detroit, combined for a two-game losing streak to start the season. The Bears rallied after that, with a resounding victory over the Dallas Cowboys and a dramatic win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

It’s up to Johnson, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and the Bears’ roster to figure out ways to improve in all areas after the first four games and build upon this winning run.

We’ve predictably seen some good, some bad and some ugly in the early going. The positives: Most everything seems fixable with the right tweaks and the defense winning with takeaways and third-down success rate despite rough statistics overall.

Let’s identify what has worked and what hasn’t thus far:

The good

Caleb Williams’ development

The second-year pro hasn’t been perfect in the early going, with some pre-snap slowdowns recurrent since the start of training camp. The quarterback has had issues with footwork and decision-making during games, but that’s improving. Also, he has a decent EPA overall, but it’s in the negative over three of four contests. (In this case, expected points added evaluates how many points a particular player contributes to a game)

We’re still seeing improvement from game to game, with Williams’ natural athleticism and arm talent showing up more often. And, when it matters most, Williams consistently steps up. There are inconsistencies to acknowledge.

Williams is learning a new offensive system while mastering relatively new techniques required to run it, so it never was supposed to be smooth at the outset. It won’t be after the bye, either. Progression, as a reminder, is not linear. But Williams is making strides. If he’s doing so this early, it’s fair to expect even better as the season progresses.

Ben Johnson getting buy-in

It’s clear that Johnson’s players are into his leadership style. It helps that they’re seeing proof of concept in the last two wins, with attention to detail and perseverance key in the team’s success. He’s demanding and providing the type of tough love and support that incumbent players wanted last year. It’s clear the Bears are better for it.

Tight Cole Kmet mentioned after Week 3, and it’s true: Bears skill players are being schemed open. Johnson’s system is working as it should, even as its play-caller believes he can do better getting calls in and finding ways to unlock the run game.

Winning the turnover battle

The Bears have controlled this area, which might not mean as much as EPA anymore but is as key as anything to victory.

The Bears have nine takeaways — seven interceptions and two fumble recoveries — to just four turnovers. Their plus-5 turnover differential ranks No. 3 over through four wins, a solid spot this early point. If that can be maintained and Williams continues to develop, the Bears will win a fair amount.

The good part is that their takeaways aren’t flukey. Most interceptions have come from smart reads and aggressive plays on the ball. Williams historically doesn’t throw tons of picks. And, say what you will about D’Andre Swift, but his ball security is solid.

The bad

Bears’ pass rush

The Bears have just five sacks overall. In short: not good enough. Their 25.2 quarterback pressure percentage ranks No. 30 in the league. While the defense is creating turnovers, there’s more meat on the bone here if the Bears would get home more often.

Johnson alluded to the fact that top edge rusher Montez Sweat needs to win one-on-one matchups more often. Dayo Odeyingbo’s stat sheet — he has two quarterback knockdowns and five total pressures — doesn’t suggest he’s the ascending, impactful player the Bears need him to be after signing him this offseason.

There’s talent up front and quality blitzers on the back end, so there’s potential for the pass rush to get better as it continues to develop as a unit.

The rushing attack

A solid run game is the bedrock of Johnson’s offense. The play-caller has remained committed to the run game (save Week 2, when that wasn’t possible), but it hasn’t been as efficient as required. The Bears are averaging 3.8 yards per carry, which is No. 25 overall. Their EPA per rushing attempt sits at minus-0.16, which ranks 28th.

Swift’s efficiency is particularly troubling. He has minus-21 rushing yards over expectation (that stat is defined here, in NextGen Stats’ glossary) and just 3.3 yards per carry despite averaging 1.5 yards before contact, per NFL NextGen Stats.

Johnson remains complimentary of Swift’s efforts, rushing intensity and pad level. He took responsibility for some of these issues, so the bye week provides some time to get the running game right. Most everything gets better when the run game is on, so fixing this issue is imperative.

The ugly

Run defense

“The Ugly” wasn’t even a category on this list until the rushing defense was analyzed.

Four games should count a small sample size overall, but the Bears have allowed a league worst 6.1 yards per carry this season and a plus-143 RYOE. A Week 4 mess in Vegas negatively skews things, but their performance beforehand — especially with explosives allowed — has been an issue all season.

Run defense is an all-11 endeavor that requires discipline and sure tackling. Improvement in this area naturally would help the pass rush and the team overall. Expect opponents to steadily attack Chicago this way until it’s fixed.

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