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What NFL stats tell us about Bears QB Caleb Williams’ rookie season

1 month agoScott Bair

Caleb Williams had a solid statistical season. Depending on which numbers you look at. His standard stat line, for example, looks good.

He had 3,541 yards, a 62.5 completion percentage, 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions. His passing total ranks fifth in Bears history. His 4,030 yards of total offense is the best in franchise history. His interception total was tied for first in Chicago rankings.

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Then why didn’t Williams’ season feel as good as those numbers reflect?

Maybe it was the league-high 68 sacks, the second-largest total taken by a rookie and a whopping 260 quarterback pressures. Some of those were on protection, others were admittedly on the quarterback himself. Maybe it was Williams’ 59.6 passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season.

Or it’s the roughest one of all, a minus-69.4 quarterback EPA. That ranked 35th among qualified quarterbacks, only ahead of Tennessee’s Will Levis. By contrast, No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels plus-78.4.

There’s context required to all that, considering Williams experienced upheaval with Shane Waldron and Matt Eberflus fire. He dealt with poor protection over large swaths of the season and a running game that went quiet near season’s end. Or the fact that he had so much thrown on his plate early, and then had the portion adjusted by a new play caller.

He also only has one game-winning drive on the ledger, though two more were ruined by a Hail Mary and a blocked field goal.

That’s why contributing factors are important to note. What we see below is an uneven season, one with signs of quality and others in need of improvement. Assuming you watched this Bears season intently, you’ll recall jaw-dropping moments of brilliance and head scratchers both in terms of decision making and offensive operation.

There’s nothing to dispel confidence in Williams as a franchise quarterback, and a darn good one at that. Let’s take a look at William’s numbers overall, using metrics from several different sources to help paint a more complete picture:

CALEB WILLIAMS STATS

Traditional box score (via pro-football-reference.com)

351-for-562 passing (62.5 comp%), 3,541 yds, 6.3 ypa, 20 TD, 6 INT, 87.8 passer rating; 89 rushes, 481 yards, 68 sacks, 10 fumbles

PFF Metrics

PFF Passing pressure

Kept clean (64.7%): 287-for-417, 2,760 yds, 6.6 ypa, 13 TD, 2 INT

Under pressure (35.3%): 64-for-145, 781 yds, 5.4 ypa, 7 TD, 4 INT

Not Blitzed (64.7%): 236-for-364, 2,242 yds, 6.2 ypa, 13 TD, 4 INT

When Blitzed (35.3%): 115-for-198, 1,299 yds, 6.6 ypa, 7 TD, 2 INT

PFF Passing direction map

Screenshot 2025 01 16 At 6.31.31 pm

Advanced passing stats (via NFL NextGen Stats)

351-of-561 passing for 3,541 yards on 678 dropbacks, 20 TDs, 6 INT, 87.8 passer rating, 62.5 comp%, -1.4 CPOE, -69.4 EPA, -0.10 EPA/DB, 2.29 seconds TTT, 68 sacks, 260 QB pressures, 38.3 QBP%, 7.9 Air Yards/Att, 12.1 Tight window throw%

ROOKIE RANKINGS

Jayden Daniels (Washington): 331-of-480 passing (69.0 comp%), 3,568 yds, 25 TD, 9 INT, 7.4 ypa, 100.1 passer rating; 148 rushes, 891 yds, 6 TD; 47 sacks, 5 fumbles

Bo Nix (Denver): 376-of-567 passing (66.3 comp%), 3,775 yds, 29 TD, 12 INT, 6.7 ypa, 93.3 passer rating; 92 rushes, 430 yds, 4 TD; 24 sacks, 3 fumbles

Caleb Williams (Bears): 351-for-562 passing (62.5 comp%), 3,541 yds, 6.3 ypa, 20 TD, 6 INT, 87.8 passer rating; 89 rushes, 481 yards, 68 sacks, 10 fumbles

Drake Maye (Patriots)*: 225-of-338 passing (66.6 comp%), 2,276 yds, 15 TD, 10 INT, 6.7 ypa, 88.1 passer rating; 54 rushes, 421 yds, 2 TD; 34 sacks, 9 fumbles

* Maye took over as a full-time starter in Week 6

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