Where Cubs stand in 2025 MLB playoff picture after Atlanta series
We’re at the time of year where each baseball game starts to feel like a football game with the way the fanbase reacts.
Every result is heightened — a feeling of euphoria follows wins and a sense of panic seems to crop up after each loss.
That was especially true of the Cubs over the last week, who had an up-and-down roller coaster of a stretch.
It started out strong — with a big win over the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on Friday.
But then the Cubs dropped Saturday and Sunday in heartbreaking fashion to the Nationals and turned in a punchless offensive effort in Monday’s loss to the Braves in Atlanta.
The Cubs turned things around and managed to salvage the series in Atlanta with clutch wins Tuesday and Wednesday night.
Now they head into Thursday’s off-day with some momentum.
With Wednesday’s victory, the Cubs matched their win total (83) from each of the last two seasons.
Here’s a look at the Cubs playoff picture with 16 games remaining:
Playoff Magic Number: 8
When we published this series a week ago, the Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot was 14. So there hasn’t been a ton of change in a week’s span.
A lot of that is due to the Cubs’ 3-3 week. A couple more wins from the Cubs in that time and they would be staring down the possibility — however remote — of clinching at home this weekend against the Tampa Bay Rays.
That is now out of the question. Instead, the earliest the Cubs could clinch would be at the beginning of their week-long road trip to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati that starts on Monday.
The San Francisco Giants lost on Wednesday, meaning the Cubs have a nine-game lead over them for the final playoff spot. The Reds won Wednesday to pull within a tie with the Giants in the standings — but both teams remain two games out of the final playoff spot.
After Wednesday’s MLB action, the Cubs now have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
In other words, get ready to see some October baseball, Cubs fans…
NL Central
Brewers (89-58), Cubs (83-63) 5.5 GB
Not much has changed here since a week ago, when the Cubs were six games behind the Brewers.
Milwaukee just got swept by the Rangers in Texas, but they previously won three straight over the Pirates before that.
So the Cubs have only been able to gain a half-game on the Brewers over the last week. That effectively puts the division out of the equation for the Cubs, even if they’re not mathematically eliminated from winning the NL Central.
It would take a historic collapse for the Cubs to chase down the Brewers with 16 games remaining.
Worth noting, however, the Cubs do hold the tiebreaker on Milwaukee if they’re able to make it interesting in the NL Central over the final two weeks.
NL Wild Card
Cubs (83-63), San Diego Padres (79-67), New York Mets (76-70) / San Francisco Giants (74-72), Cincinnati Reds (74-72)
While the Mets have been in a freefall (they’ve lost five straight games), the Padres have held serve with the Cubs over the last week.
That’s still good news for the Cubs, as they hold a four-game lead over San Diego for the top Wild Card spot and the right to host the first playoff series Sept. 30 through Oct. 2.
Even if the division is essentially out of the picture, the Cubs have a lot to play for with that top Wild Card spot.
The Cubs win more than 60% of their games at home (44-28) and are only slightly above .500 on the road (39-35). But even more than that: If they play the Padres (which is how things are shaping up at the moment), hosting the series at Wrigley would be a massive advantage.
The Padres struggle on the road, with a 35-40 record this season. Meanwhile, they are lights-out at home with a 44-27 record.
If the Mets turn things around and overtake the Padres for the second Wild Card spot, the home/road splits are even more pronounced. The Mets are 45-27 in New York but just 31-43 on the road.
The main takeaway: The Cubs want to ensure they secure the top Wild Card spot and are playing at home for that best-of-three series. It would not only strengthen their team, but it would weaken their opponents who struggle on the road.
Plus, that would be a nice treat for Cubs fans who have not experienced a playoff game at Wrigley Field since the 2018 NL Wild Card game (back when it was only one game and not a whole series). The 2020 season did not feature fans in the stands — only on the rooftops across the street from Wrigley.
What’s next?
The Cubs return home for a quick weekend series with the Rays — and a joyous celebration with former icon Anthony Rizzo returning to Wrigley Field for Saturday’s game.
After that, they’ll hit the road for the final trip of the season, with three in Pittsburgh and then a four-game series in Cincinnati.
Paul Skenes — the likely NL Cy Young winner — is lined up to pitch Game 1 of that Cubs-Pirates series.
Things won’t get much easier in Cincinnati against a Reds team that will have its back against the wall and will be fighting for its playoff life.
The Cubs will then enjoy the final off-day of the season after the road trip (Monday, Sept. 22) before a six-game homestand against the Mets and Cardinals to close out the season.
That three-game set against the Mets could have major implications in the Wild Card race, even if the Cubs have solidified a top seed by that point.
Playoff Bracket
First Round Byes: No. 1 seed Milwaukee Brewers, No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card matchup 1: No. 6 New York Mets at No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card matchup 2: No. 5 San Diego Padres at No. 4 Cubs
Nothing has changed here from this column a week ago.
But there is a big storyline worth watching: Will the Phillies catch the Brewers for the top seed in the NL? They’ve been hot lately and are only 2.5 games behind Milwaukee.
Assuming the Cubs finish as the No. 4 seed, they will face the No. 1 seed if they win the Wild Card series.


