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Cubs News

Cubs mailbag: 2026 payroll, plus Shota Imanaga, Kyle Tucker returns

3 weeks agoAndy Martinez

The GM Meetings wrapped up this week at the Cosmopolitan Hotel in Las Vegas, marking the unofficial start to the offseason.

For Jed Hoyer and the Cubs’ front office, the hope is that they have some clarity on where the markets – trade, free agent and internationally – stand ahead of the winter months.

Naturally, you as a Cubs fan have questions about the team, so we’re going to take some time throughout the offseason to answer some of them. We had a ton of submissions, so keep them coming. We won’t get to them all this time, but we’ll try to get to as many of your questions as we can over the next couple of months.

[State of the Cubs: Cubs hope to replicate 2025 offensive success from catchers in 2026]

Note, some of the questions have been lightly edited for grammar and clarity and similar questions have been bunched together.

@rudy_319_17 on Instagram: Will the Cubs actually spend money this time?
@brady_Boyd17 on Instagram: Are we gonna spend money?

This will be one of the storylines to follow this winter. The Cubs have fairly clean books following 2026 – only Dansby Swanson is signed to a guaranteed contract beyond then – but Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins were, as they always are, mum about specific budget numbers.

“We’re not at a final number yet, but I’ve got a good sense of where we’ll be,” Hoyer told reporters in Las Vegas on Tuesday, before declining to say where their spending will be in comparison to 2025.

Their final estimated payroll was around $230 million against the competitive balance tax, per Cot’s Contracts. FanGraphs and Spotrac both had them at $227 million. Regardless, they were under the first threshold and did not incur a tax for going over, like they did in 2024.

Those three outlets have them currently projected between $162 million and $166 million, meaning there’s room before the luxury tax threshold of $244 million. They’ve gone over that figure three times since winning the World Series – in 2016, in 2019 and in 2020.

Scott H., Elgin, IL: Can the Qualifying Offer to Shota Imanaga be used to leverage a multi-year, incentive-laden deal?  Or is it just thumbs up or thumbs down on the $22.025 million?
@pinkflloyd95 on Instagram: How likely is it that the Cubs re-sign Shota Imanaga on a different deal?
@banjolink4 on Instagram: Will the Cubs re-sign Imanaga, and if not, who will replace him?

This was another popular question, so we lumped a few of them and will try and hit on them all.

Scott H., theoretically, yes, the QO can be used as a bit of leverage, but Imanaga won’t pick a team until after he makes his decision on the one-year contract. If he denies it, he’ll be tied to a draft pick, meaning if he leaves Chicago, that team will forfeit a draft pick to the Cubs as compensation.

It’s a toss-up as to whether Imanaga will accept the one-year QO. My hunch says he denies it, because only 14 of the previous 144 players who have received it have accepted it. And remember, he isn’t trying to beat the annual average value (AAV) of $22.025 million; he’s trying to have more total dollars. So, if a team offers him a two-year, $40 million pact, that’s already a better deal than accepting the QO. Less AAV, yes, but more overall money and security.

The Cubs would gladly take back Imanaga on their roster; they wouldn’t have extended the QO if they didn’t want him back in any form. This is a team that needs pitching; they effectively ran out of it in the playoffs and Imanaga, despite his horrid end to 2025, still posted a 3.73 ERA and has a lifetime 3.28 ERA in the majors.

Regardless of whether he returns, the Cubs are on the hunt for pitching, pitching and more pitching and they’ll look at every market – trades, some of the arms coming over from Japan and, of course, the free agent market.

Ron I., Chicago: What’s going on with getting a big bat such as either signing to a long-term contract Kyle Tucker or possibly bringing back Kyle Schwarber or even going after Munetaka Murakami that’s being made available to teams? Also, any plans on getting some top of the rotation starters?

Maureen M., Sterling, IL: Will Kyle Tucker stay for 2026? We need to keep him!  I know he has other options but he has been a great asset for our Cubs!

@aidan.canady on Instagram: Can Owen Caissie fill that RF spot if Tucker walks?

Continuing the trend of hitting on popular questions, there’s curiosity about a potential Tucker return to Chicago.

Hoyer’s comments at the GM Meetings made it seem unlikely, with the team seeing pitching as a bigger need and priority.

“I think that’s obvious — look at our depth chart,” Hoyer told reporters. “We’re in a pretty good position on the position player side – on the pitching side, we’re thinner. I think that’s going to be our focus and I expect to explore trades, I expect to explore free agency – both at the top of the market, but also looking at minor league free agency.”

Sure, is it possible that Tucker or Schwarber’s market doesn’t materialize and the Cubs find themselves in a position to add one of the two? Of course. No one thought Alex Bregman would wind up in Chicago last offseason, but as his free agency moved at a snail’s pace, the Cubs were in the mix in spring training.

Now, they didn’t land Bregman, so that doesn’t exactly boost confidence, but it’s a tale that free agency is wild and unpredictable.

Tucker, like Imanaga, had a rough finish to 2025. But when Tucker was healthy and at his best, so were the Cubs. He had 17 home runs and a .931 OPS through June, and the Cubs had a 50-35 record in that span. After that, he had just five home runs and a .690 OPS as the Cubs went 42-35.

The Cubs will have to replace that somehow and maybe Caissie is part of that equation. But if Tucker doesn’t return, expect Seiya Suzuki to patrol right field and some combination of Moisés Ballesteros and Caissie to play a role in the lineup either as DH or, in Caissie’s case, in right field to spell some time off for Suzuki.

Bob B., Valparaiso, IN: Hire the Professor as a pitching coach.

Roger G., Bloomington, IN: As soon as possible, sign Kyle Hendricks to a one-day contract so he can retire a CUB.

I stay in Florida winters but would crawl to Wrigley to witness his retirement. I was at Wrigley Sept. 27, 2024 for his final Cub game vs Reds.

“The Professor” – deservedly so – received plenty of praise from Cubs fans after his retirement from a 12-year big-league career. You likely won’t see him donning a uniform in a dugout as a coach anytime soon, though.

Hoyer and the Cubs have already said they’ll welcome him back to Chicago and he’ll make some appearances at the Friendly Confines in the future, but, as was his style, expect him to be nonchalant and far from the spotlight.

That final outing against the Reds was the perfect send-off to Wrigley and hopefully, Roger, you won’t be crawling to Chicago any time soon!

Submit your questions below for inclusion in the next Cubs mailbag!! 👇

Cubs Mail Bag

Submit your questions below to be featured in the next Cubs mailbag! Marquee Sports Network Cubs reporter Andy Martínez will be answering questions from fans throughout the offseason.