The Cubs could officially secure a playoff berth when they return from their quick, three-game road trip to Atlanta.

Of course, a lot must happen and it’s very likely that the Cubs won’t actually secure a spot until later in the month. But the clock is winding down, so to speak, and a return to October is near.

Here’s a look at the Cubs playoff picture with 22 games across just over three weeks left:

Playoff Magic Number: 14

The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot did not change on Wednesday, even though the Cincinnati Reds lost.

The magic number is the combination of wins by the Cubs and losses by the top team out of a playoff spot – the last team out of the bracket, if you will.

Entering Wednesday, that “last team out” was the Reds. But the San Francisco Giants have been on a surge lately and stormed past the Reds in the NL Wild Card picture.

The Giants – who swept the Cubs last week in San Francisco – are now only four games out of the final playoff spot in the NL.

The Cubs, however, are still in a great position as they sit nine games ahead of the Giants and 10 in front of the Reds with only three-and-a-half weeks left to play. That’s why the Cubs still have a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs, even though the Giants have been making up ground over the last two weeks.

The Cubs could clinch a playoff spot as soon as next Friday, Sept. 12 if they won all seven games between now and then and the Giants lost their next six in a row.

That’s unlikely to happen, of course. But it illustrates just how close the Cubs could be to celebrating their first playoff berth in a full season since 2018.

It’s more likely that the Cubs clinch a playoff berth sometime on the week-long road trip to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati from Sept. 15-21.

NL Central

Brewers (86-54), Cubs (80-60), 6 GB

The Brewers win over the Phillies, coupled with the Cubs’ loss means the North Siders fell to six games back in the division. Milwaukee’s magic number to win the NL Central is 17.

Milwaukee plays Philadelphia to wrap up their three-game, four-day series on Thursday, then travel to Pittsburgh for a three-game set that kicks off a six-game road trip. They head to Texas after facing the Pirates.

Like the Cubs, the Brewers go on an extended run of playing teams below .500 after their series against the Rangers. They won’t face a contending team the rest of the season until a three-game series in San Diego and a three-game set at home against the Reds to wrap up the year.

The division is still technically a possibility for the Cubs, but an extremely unlikely one.

If the Cubs went 17-5 over their final 22 games, the Brewers played .500 ball (11-11), the Cubs would win the division by virtue of holding the tiebreaker.

While the Cubs are certainly capable of going on such a run, it’s hard to see them losing only five games the rest of the season when they still have seven to play against teams fighting for their playoff lives (Reds, Mets), plus nine more games against the Rays, Pirates and Cardinals — all teams that have played solid baseball recently.

NL Wild Card

Cubs (80-60), San Diego Padres (76-64), New York Mets (75-65) / San Francisco Giants (71-69), Cincinnati Reds (70-70)

While the division remains a question mark, the Cubs still control their destiny in the hunt for the top spot in the Wild Card – which guarantees home-field advantage for the three-game series.

The Cubs’ magic number to clinch that key spot is 18. If they hold onto that top Wild Card spot and the Padres take the second, then they’d face off in the Wild Card round at Wrigley Field.

The two teams split the season series with the Cubs winning two of three in Chicago and the Padres taking two of three in San Diego.

The Padres have been playing some up-and-down baseball of late. They had a pair of five-game winning streaks in August, but they also lost four games in a row at two separate points — including a three-game sweep at the hands of the rebuilding Baltimore Orioles this week.

What’s next

The Cubs open a three-game series against the Washington Nationals on Friday before jetting off to Atlanta to take on the Braves again. Here’s the rest of the schedule for the Cubs down the stretch:

Sept. 12-14 vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sept. 15-17 at Pittsburgh Pirates
Sept. 18-21 at Cincinnati Reds
Sept. 23-25 vs. New York Mets
Sept 26-28 vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Playoff Bracket

Here’s what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today:

First Round Byes: No. 1 seed Milwaukee Brewers, No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card matchup 1: No. 6 New York Mets at No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card matchup 2: No. 5 San Diego Padres at No. 4 Cubs